• A model with four different scenarios enables companies to better understand market dynamics and choose the right moment to launch their products.
• Generalist AIs (not to be confused with general AIs), such as ChatGPT, benefit from flexible deployment, while specialist AIs, particularly in healthcare, require stricter preparation and precise timing to avoid market rejection.
How do you know when the timing is right for a tech product launch?
Ela Veresiu: As part of our research, we created a model to simplify the analysis of launch situations in which we identified four distinct scenarios. The first is an antagonistic timing situation or delegitimate launch moment marked by low firm-led coordination and low stakeholder willingness to change. Take for example the launch of Google Glass. The second is a synergistic timing scenario, which is a legitimate moment for a launch with high firm-led coordination and high stakeholder willingness to change. This was the case for the launch of Meta’s Ray-Ban Smart Glasses, which became a real success story.
Should stakeholders dictate the right moment for the launch of a new technology product?
Ela Veresiu: Yes, that is what we call a flexible timing scenario. In this case, there is low firm-led coordination, but consumers and other stakeholders, who are very keen for change, legitimize the launch. Google Bard, which has since been renamed Gemini, had a launch of this kind. Finally, there are inflexible timing scenarios, which are marked by a high degree of firm-led coordination, but the stakeholders are not ready for the new innovation. For example, they were not ready for the many AI enhanced health features offered by the Google Fitbit 6.
Specialised AIs, particularly in healthcare, require a more structured and closely monitored process, and companies need to establish strict rules to limit risks prior to their launch.
What about timing for the launch of AIs?
Ela Veresiu: Our model distinguishes between launches for generalist AIs, such as ChatGPT and Gemini, and specialised AIs. Companies often take a flexible approach to generalist AI launches, allowing users access to demos in advance which gives them more time to adapt to new products. However, specialised AIs, particularly those used in healthcare, require a more structured and closely monitored process. Companies need to adhere to a much tighter timeline, and they also have to establish strict rules to limit risks prior to their launch.
Companies sometimes launch technologies before they are ready. What are the risks involved in doing that?
Thomas Derek Robinson: Companies sometimes decide to launch products based on technologies that are not fully mature. The idea is to test the market: to see if it is ready and how it will react. It is also a chance to learn from consumers, who are asking critical questions about how these innovations will affect their future, their health and their privacy. In a context of market fragmentation, the answers to these questions may vary from one region to another. So it remains a risky approach, a bit of a gamble.
The best strategy might be to wait…
Thomas Derek Robinson: Launching technologies at the wrong time can spell disaster for otherwise promising innovations. It is essential for technology leaders to do things in a certain order if they are to maintain their credibility and dominant position. This is not just a matter of patenting new technology: they have to wait until all of the right conditions are fulfilled. Technology leaders have to anticipate and adapt to change if they are to avoid losing their market dominance to competitors who do a better job of timing their launches.
Are we heading towards fragmentation in technology markets?
Thomas Derek Robinson: I think we are moving from globalisation to regionalisation. More and more barriers have emerged to create different Internets in different regions. This has complicated technological development, because each region of these regions has different expectations. Take the example of robots: in the UK, they are developing robot butlers, while in Denmark, robots are being designed for well-being and personal care.
Sources :
Robinson, T. & Veresiu, E. (2024). Timing Legitimacy: Identifying the Optimal Moment to Launch Technology in the Market. Journal of Marketing, doi:10.1177/0022242924128040
